Wall Street and the media are smitten with Netflix and Disney’s streaming rivalry.
Netflix will report its first-quarter earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, and investors will be looking for solid global subscriber growth, and for management to put them at ease ahead of competition from upcoming services like Disney+ and Apple TV+, both of which were announced in the past month. Netflix lost more than $8 billion in market value since last Thursday, when Disney+ was revealed, before rebounding in trading on Tuesday.
But not everyone is concerned with the stiffening competition.
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded Netflix to buy from hold ahead of earnings on Tuesday, crediting the company for becoming a "cultural necessity" and "magnet for talent." Kraft argued that concerns over competition are overblown, because the family-friendly Disney+ service is not a replacement for Netflix’s broad platform and its direct rival, Hulu, isn’t established globally like Netflix is.
Investors will also be eyeing Netflix’s guidance for the second quarter, when it will largely be rolling out its biggest US price hike among existing customers. It could cast a pall over subscriber growth during the period.
Here are the key numbers to look for in Netflix’s earnings:
- Q1 revenue: Wall Street estimates $4.505 billion and Netflix forecasts $4.49 billion.
- Q1 earnings per share (GAAP): Wall Street estimates $0.58 and Netflix forecasts $0.56.
- Q1 total paid subscriber growth (paid net additions): Wall Street estimates 8.94 million and Netflix forecasts 8.9 million.
- For the US, Wall Street estimates 1.61 million and Netflix forecasts 1.6 million.
- Internationally, Wall Street estimates 7.33 million and Netflix forecasts 7.3 million.
- Q2 total paid-subscriber-growth guidance (estimated paid net additions): Wall Street estimates 6.09 million.
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