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- The Federal Reserve slashed borrowing costs Wednesday for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, a move that has been priced into financial markets for months. But stocks fell sharply following the announcement.
- The mood on Wall Street soured after Fed Chairman Jay Powell dimmed expectations for additional easing, dispelling the idea that Wednesday was the start of a "long series of rate cuts."
- Here’s what Wall Street is saying about the decision.
- Visit Markets Insider for more stories.
The Federal Reserve slashed borrowing costs Wednesday for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, a move that has been priced into financial markets for months.
But stocks fell sharply after the central bank announced it would lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to target range of between 2% and 2.25%. The mood on Wall Street soured after Fed Chairman Jay Powell dimmed expectations for additional easing, saying Wednesday wasn’t the start of a "long series of rate cuts."
The major US indices each shed more than 1%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 suffering their worst daily losses since May. The dollar jumped against a basket of peers, while Treasury yields fell.
Here’s what Wall Street is saying about the decision.
On the market reaction
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"Reductions or increases in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate are often like trying to kill a mosquito with an anvil; it may get the job done but the fallout is always widespread and sure to cause a commotion. So it is with today’s rate cut as the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee sought to provide a cushion to a rapidly deteriorating global economic environment that will likely spill over into the U.S. economy and muted inflation." -Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM
"And That’s What a Hawkish Cut Looks Like … The minimal size of the cut, the dissents, and Powell’s press conference disappointed markets, and undercut our expectation. Powell’s statement that the cut was ‘in the nature of a mid-cycle adjustment to policy’ provided little dovish guidance for future policy moves." -Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley
It was strange market reaction, but these are strange times and Powell was trying to thread a very narrow needle. He wanted to signal that the economy is weakening, but not weakening too much. What the market heard was that the Fed is cutting, but is not cutting enough. Ironically, had Powell signaled deeper cuts, it might have triggered concerns that the economy is much weaker than the current data. -Christopher Smart, chief global strategist and head of the Barings Investment Institute
On inflation and employment
AP/John Minchillo
"Fed Chair Jay Powell is cognizant of the global disinflationary impulses heading America’s way – never mind tariffs." -Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard
The shift comes at a time when US unemployment is close to its lowest level since the 1960s, and credit conditions are already accommodative, based on the National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Fed. Barring a marked deterioration in the economic outlook, we expect the Fed to implement at most one more 25bps cut and then to remain on hold through the end of 2020. -Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS
On the next adjustment
Reuters
Financial markets continue to expect that further easing will be necessary to protect growth, and after today’s move are still pricing in two or three additional 25bps rate cuts by the end of 2020. We believe this is excessive, given the relative resilience of the US economy to-date and recent evidence that suggests inflation may be bottoming out. -Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS
Markets still expect another cut in the fall, but the actual timing will depend on the data between now and then. On the one hand, strong jobs or manufacturing numbers could lead expectations to reset to a much higher rate path. On the other hand, further easing by the European Central Bank or renewed trade tensions with China could lead markets to price in further cuts. -Christopher Smart, chief global strategist and head of the Barings Investment Institute
Powell was clear that the Fed does not see today’s cut as the beginning of a cutting cycle. If the Fed returns to data dependence, based on our forecast, they will not cut again. -Seth Carpenter, chief economist at UBS
I think for now that the base case is no cut in September but a balance of risks and an inflation outlook that argue for easing thereafter. Paradoxically, today’s press conference and the associated financial market response make additional easing likely later in the year. -Eric Winograd, senior US economist at AllianceBernstein
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
See Also:
- Here’s how the Fed sets interest rates and why it matters
- A Wall Street stock chief explains how the Fed has brought the stock market dangerously close to disaster — and why rate cuts might be too late to avoid it
- Billionaire ‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach unpacks a market phenomenon that takes place just before a recession hits — and warns it’s happening right now
Source: Business Insider – gheeb@businessinsider.com (Gina Heeb)