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The New England Patriots own the recent series with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, winning seven of the last eight meetings straight up, including two in the playoffs, with a 6-2 run against the spread. Can the Patriots continue that dominance when they host the Chargers for an AFC Divisional Round bout Sunday afternoon in Foxboro?
NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as five-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.5-12.4 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Chargers can cover the spread
Los Angeles reached the Divisional round of these playoffs by beating the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday 23-17. The Chargers ground out a 12-0 halftime lead, pushed it to 23-3 early in the fourth quarter, allowed the Ravens to pull within 23-17 with just under two minutes to go but clinched the outright victory as three-point underdogs by forcing and recovering a Lamar Jackson fumble with 30 seconds left.
On the afternoon Los Angeles only produced 243 yards of total offense against the No. 1 defense in the league, but only allowed 229. And most of the yardage the Chargers defense gave up came while protecting a big lead in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles also held a 34/26 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 3-1, creating a plus-3 points differential.
With the victory/cover the Chargers are now 8-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season, and 5-1 both SU and ATS as underdogs on the betting lines.
Why the Patriots can cover the spread
New England won its last two games of the regular season, beating Buffalo and the Jets by a combined score of 62-15, to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. So the Patriots are playing on the extra week off.
New England out-gained New York two weeks ago 375-239 and out-gained the Bills three weeks ago 390-289. So the Patriots have out-gained seven of their last nine opponents, and out-rushed six of their last nine foes.
New England is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this season, with six wins by double digits. It’s also 8-5 ATS over its last 13 games, despite being favored by double digits five times over that span.
And while Tom Brady and the fifth-ranked offense get most of the ink the Patriots defense has held seven of its last nine opponents to 17 points or less.
Smart betting pick
New England beat Los Angeles in October of last season 21-13 and covered as a 6.5-point favorite. Now, while the Chargers are a hot pick to click in these playoffs, they’re also a bit banged up and playing on the east coast for the second straight week. Meanwhile the Patriots are rested and coach Bill Belichick has had an extra week to prepare. Smart money here at betting sites gives the nod to New England.
NFL betting trends
The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Patriots.
The total has gone under in five of the Chargers’ last six games against the Patriots.
The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.
Source: “Los Angeles” – Google News