What happens now May’s Brexit plan has been rejected for a third time?

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been defeated for a third time.
The result means Britain is due to leave the EU on April 12 unless it agrees a lengthy delay with the EU.
Rumours of a general election are circling in Westminster.
The EU council will hold an emergency summit on April 10.
The UK Parliament could move this week to force May into a softer Brexit.

LONDON — Theresa May’s Brexit plan was rejected for a third time on Friday, setting up a further clash between the government and MPs next week.

A vote on her withdrawal agreement, which forms part of her overall plan for leaving the EU, was rejected by 344 votes to 286.

Two previous votes on her wider Brexit package had already been rejected by large margins. However, the prime minister had hoped that separating the withdrawal agreement — which deals with divorce issues from the EU — from the political declaration — which deals with the future UK-EU relationship — would be able to secure her a majority.

Approval for the withdrawal agreement on Friday would have secured her a short Brexit extension until mid-May, but the failure of the plan has thrown further uncertainty on the future of Brexit as the UK’s April 12 departure date edges closer.

On Friday afternoon the EU Council announced it would be holding an emergency summit on April 10 to find a way forward.

So what happens next?

Indicative votes

UK Parliament / Mark Duffy

On Monday, parliament will hold a second round of indicative votes, a process by which backbenchers seize control of the parliamentary agenda and hold a series of non-binding votes to see what type of exit — if any – could command support from MPs, and the implications could be seismic.

Parliament is trying desperately to find a Brexit compromise that could command a majority in the Commons. The first round of indicative votes was held on Wednesday.

No single plan received backing from a majority of MPs at the first time of asking. But Wednesday’s eight options are likely to be whittled down to perhaps two or three on Monday as rival camps for a softer Brexit seek compromise.

There is also talk that a preferential voting system could be introduced which would force one plan to emerge as the favourite.

Customs union?

UK Parliament / Mark Duffy

The plan most likely to command a majority on Monday is for a permanent customs union, which lost by only 8 votes on Wednesday. There are several dozen MPs who would be minded towards a customs union if other softer Brexit options had been taken off the table.

Supposing parliament did vote in favour of a customs union, would May move to negotiate such a deal? The EU would almost certainly be willing to re-open the political declaration and include permanent customs union membership as a condition of the future UK-EU relationship.

But the prime minister would be highly reluctant to. A customs union membership commanded the support of 265 MPs on Wednesday, but only 33 Tory MPs. May is acutely aware that moving towards a permanent customs union would be so divisive within the Conservative ranks that it could tear the party in two.

The other possibility — if May is not willing to move to a customs union herself — is that parliament could bypass the executive and legislate for such an outcome itself. It is unclear exactly how it could do so, but backbenchers have already seized control of the Commons agenda once to run indicative votes and would almost certainly try to do so again.

General election?

UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor

Talk of an impending general election is dominating discussions in Westminster.

Responding to the result Theresa May hinted that it could be on the cards, telling MPs that "I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House."

The problem is not that Labour would vote against it. They have spent the last two years calling for one, so the leadership would probably need to whip its MPs in support.

However, under the Fixed Term-Parliament Act, two-thirds of MPs would have to vote in favour of a general election.

That makes it unlikely, because most Tory MPs do not want Theresa May to lead them into another general election, and would be highly unlikely to vote for one while she was leader. That makes such an outcome unlikely although not impossible.

A lengthy extension?

UK Parliament / Mark Duffy

Here are some firm dates. As it stands, the UK will leave the EU with or without a deal on April 12. Theresa May has herself indicated that parliament would not allow such an outcome, which would make the choice facing MPs binary. Either they must approve her deal — perhaps with permanent customs union membership — or they must by April 12 ask the EU for a much longer extension to Article 50, likely until the end of this year at least.

Theresa May is determined to avoid such an outcome, because it would mean the UK was forced to participate in European elections. But she may find she has no choice.

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