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- The Democratic 2020 presidential field is set to be one of the largest, most competitive, and most unpredictable in modern history with 23 declared candidates so far.
- To help make sense of where all these candidates stand in the field, INSIDER has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll.
- We’ve combined INSIDER’s polling and results of Morning Consult’s daily survey of the 2020 Democratic primary in order to create a power ranking of declared and potential 2020 candidates.
- Compared to the last version of our ranking published on May 10, we’ve upgraded Gov. Steve Bullock and Andrew Yang and downgraded Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Gov. John Hickenlooper, and Stacey Abrams.
- Here’s what our power ranking looks like as of May 17, 2019.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
With 23 declared candidates in the race, the Democratic the 2020 presidential field is set to be one of the largest, most competitive, and most unpredictable in modern history.
To help make sense of where all these candidates stand in the field, INSIDER has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll. You can download every single poll here, down to the individual respondent data.
We choose not to focus on the overall percentage of Democratic voters that would be satisfied in the event a candidate became the nominee. Instead, we’re looking for conditional probability: given that a voter likes Candidate A, how often do they like Candidate B, and how is that different than Candidate B’s overall performance.
Read more about how the INSIDER 2020 Democratic primary tracker works.
At this point in the race, we’re mainly interested in using our polling to figure out:
- What percentage of Democratic voters are familiar with each candidate in the first place.
- How Democrats rate each candidate’s chances of beating President Donald Trump in a general election match-up.
- If a given candidate were to drop out of the race, who their supporters would flock to next.
We’ve combined INSIDER’s polling and results of Morning Consult’s daily survey of the 2020 Democratic primary in order to create a power ranking of declared and potential 2020 candidates.
As of now, former VP Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren hold the top three spots in our ranking.
Compared to the last version of our ranking published on May 10, we’ve upgraded Gov. Steve Bullock and Andrew Yang and downgraded Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Gov. John Hickenlooper, and Stacey Abrams.
These rankings will be subject to change as we get new information, but at this stage in the cycle, we’re mainly interested in how a candidate’s name is resonating and how many voters think they can beat Trump.
Here’s what our ranking looks like as of May 17, 2019.
25: Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam.
AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
Messam, who announced on March 28, isn’t registering in Morning Consult’s polling yet and will have an uphill battle attracting voters and donors as such a late entry into the field with very limited name recognition.
More importantly, it seems like his campaign already fell apart at the seams just weeks after its official launch.
According to a recent report in the Miami New Times, several campaign staffers have already quit after the campaign couldn’t make payroll, and the campaign hasn’t sent out any press releases in almost a month.
The campaign subsequent recently sent a memo, obtained by the New Times, informing remaining staff that Messam’s wife Angela has "consolidated all of the financial and banking assets of the campaign under her exclusive control" and is "refusing to issue paychecks."
24: New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio
Dennis Van Tine/STAR MAX/IPx via AP
De Blasio formally announced his campaign on May 16, the 23rd candidate to jump into the race.
Not only does Dde Blasio have low national name recognition, but he is, by far, the most unpopular 2020 candidate both among the residents of his own city and among the broader Democratic primary electorate.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in April found that not only is his approval rating underwater, an overwhelming 76% of New Yorkers also believed de Blasio shouldn’t run for president, and a Monmouth University poll released in March found de Blasio was the only declared or potential Democratic candidate to receive a net negative favorability rating.
De Blasio was able to win a crowded 2013 mayoral primary thanks to the last-minute implosion of Anthony Weiner, but his likelihood of winning the presidential nomination is slim to none unless several major candidates experience a Weiner-level scandal.
The only advantage de Blasio currently seems to have over Messam is a functioning campaign staff.
23: Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel
AP Photo/Jim Cole
Gravel, 88, is running perhaps the most unique 2020 campaign. Managed by three high-school and college-aged students, the main goal of Gravel’s candidacy is to get to the debate stage — and get US imperialism and foreign policy in the 2020 discussion.
Not only has Gravel’s candidacy has generated a lot of online buzz with his staff’s eye-catching tweets, but he’s even achieved 1% in a few polls, although he hasn’t yet registered on Morning Consult’s radar.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
See Also:
- Here’s how Americans rank the 2020 presidential candidates on the political spectrum
- These are the most well-known 2020 presidential candidates among Democratic voters
- These are the 2020 candidates that Democratic voters think are most likely to lose an election against Trump
Source: Business Insider – gpanetta@businessinsider.com (Grace Panetta)