- Netflix’s US share of subscription OTT viewers is ticking down, even as the streaming giant continues to bring in more viewers year after year, forecasts from research firm eMarketer show.
- Smaller streaming rivals like Amazon and Hulu are to blame, the firm says. Those services are gaining ground, and chipping away at Netflix’s market share.
- eMarketer doesn’t expect forthcoming services like Disney Plus and Apple TV Plus to significantly grow the overall number of subscription OTT services. They’ll be coming for Netflix’s market share, too.
- "While there is no true ‘Netflix killer’ on the market, Disney’s upcoming bundle with Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ probably comes closest," eMarketer’s forecasting analyst said.
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Netflix’s smaller rivals are slowly eating away at the streaming giant’s US market share, forecasts from research firm eMarketer show.
More and more viewers are watching Netflix every year. EMarketer forecasts that Netflix will reach 158.8 million US viewers this year — 8% more than in 2018 — and climb to 177.5 million viewers by 2023.
But the company’s overall US market share is being squeezed as smaller rivals that are gaining ground, like Amazon Prime Video and Hulu, and soon, Disney Plus.
In 2014, Netflix reached 90% of subscription over-the-top viewers in the US. In 2019, it’s forecasted to reach 87% of subscription OTT viewers.
Its market share will drop by another percentage point by 2023, when services like Disney Plus, Apple TV Plus, and HBO Max will also be on the market, eMarketer projects.
By comparison, Amazon Prime Video, Netflix’s largest US rival by eMarketer’s forecasts, will reach 53% of subscription OTT viewers in 2019, and continue growing its market share, the research firm forecasts.
Hulu’s market share will also rise to 41.5% this year.
Those services are growing their audiences faster than Netflix, eMarketer data showed, but aren’t nearly as popular.
Soon-to-launch services like Disney Plus, Apple TV Plus, and HBO Max are expected to chip away at Netflix’s US market share, starting next year, eMarketer said. The research firm did not break out their potential impact.
"Netflix has faced years of strong competition for viewers, coming from streaming-video platforms, pay-TV services, and even video games," Eric Haggstrom, forecasting analyst at eMarketer, said. "While there is no true ‘Netflix killer’ on the market, Disney’s upcoming bundle with Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ probably comes closest. Netflix’s answer has been to stick to what has made it the market leader — outspending the competition on both licensed and original content, offering customers a competitive price."
This year, eMarketer projects that 182.5 million people in the US, or about 55% of the population, will watch content through subscription streaming services.
While upcoming services Disney Plus will give viewers more streaming options, eMarketer told Business Insider it doesn’t expect them to meaningful grow the number of subscription OTT user in the US.
"Rather we are expecting that their subscribers are people who are already subscribing to other services," eMarketer said.
Watch out, Netflix.
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